| Week | Date | Result | Opponent | Score | ELO Before | ELO Change | ELO After | Win Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Aug 30 2025 | L | California | 15-34 | 1569.2 | -68.5 | 1500.7 | 38.2% |
| 3 | Sep 6 2025 | L | Fresno State | 27-36 | 1500.7 | -35.2 | 1465.5 | 38.3% |
| 4 | Sep 13 2025 | L | Texas Tech | 14-45 | 1465.5 | -4.6 | 1460.9 | 9.9% |
| 5 | Sep 20 2025 | L | Oregon | 7-41 | 1460.9 | +1.7 | 1462.6 | 2.0% |
| 6 | Sep 26 2025 | L | Houston | 24-27 | 1462.6 | +34.6 | 1497.2 | 12.9% |
| 7 | Oct 4 2025 | L | App State | 23-27 | 1497.2 | -29.1 | 1468.1 | 68.4% |
| 8 | Oct 11 2025 | L | Wake Forest | 14-39 | 1468.1 | -37.7 | 1430.4 | 32.4% |
| 9 | Oct 18 2025 | W | Lafayette | 45-13 | 1430.4 | +27.5 | 1457.9 | 85.2% |
| 11 | Nov 1 2025 | W | Washington State | 10-7 | 1460.9 | +22.4 | 1483.3 | 24.3% |
| 12 | Nov 8 2025 | L | Sam Houston | 17-21 | 1483.3 | -32.9 | 1450.4 | 85.4% |
| 13 | Nov 15 2025 | L | Tulsa | 14-31 | 1450.4 | -26.4 | 1424.0 | 67.9% |
| 15 | Nov 29 2025 | L | Washington State | 8-32 | 1427.1 | -8.0 | 1419.1 | 19.1% |