| Week | Date | Result | Opponent | Score | ELO Before | ELO Change | ELO After | Win Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sep 5 2026 | L | Houston | 20-33 | 1675.8 | -180.1 | 1495.7 | 29.2% |
| 2 | Sep 12 2026 | L | Texas Tech | 24-35 | 1495.7 | +15.1 | 1510.7 | 7.4% |
| 3 | Sep 20 2026 | W | Montana | 52-17 | 1510.7 | +27.2 | 1538.0 | 82.1% |
| 4 | Sep 27 2026 | W | UTEP | 33-7 | 1538.0 | +20.9 | 1558.9 | 86.9% |
| 5 | Oct 3 2026 | W | Colorado State | 56-26 | 1558.9 | +56.5 | 1615.3 | 62.2% |
| 6 | Oct 10 2026 | W | San Diego State | 66-14 | 1615.3 | +73.9 | 1689.2 | 64.4% |